Plan Bay Area 2040 Draft Preferred Scenario Released

Plan Bay Area 2040 Draft Preferred Scenario Released


a Muni Metro streetcar glides past compact housing in San Francisco
The Draft Preferred Scenario looks at how to accommodate 820,000 new households in the Bay Area by 2040, focusing much of the projected growth in transit-rich Priority Development Areas.
Peter Beeler
Friday, September 9, 2016

Today the Draft Preferred Land Use Scenario was released, marking a major milestone toward the development of Plan Bay Area 2040. The Draft Preferred Scenario represents a regional pattern of household and employment growth by the year 2040, and includes a corresponding transportation investment strategy.

In May 2016, MTC and ABAG released three alternative land use and transportation scenarios illustrating the effects that different housing, land use and transportation strategies would have on the regionally adopted performance targets. The three scenarios were featured in public open houses and online forums throughout May and June. They represent a progression of plausible regional futures, from more intense housing and employment growth in the urban core (“Big Cities Scenario”); to more evenly apportioned development among priority development areas (PDAs) in medium-sized cities with access to rail services (“Connected Neighborhoods Scenario”); to a more dispersed development pattern, with relatively more growth occurring outside of PDAs (“Main Streets Scenario”). 

Since then, staff has incorporated feedback received from the public and from policymakers to craft the Draft Preferred Scenario. To learn more about the Draft Preferred Scenario, as well as how the public can submit comments on this draft by October 14, please visit the Draft Preferred Scenario page on this website.