Website Correspondence

Website Correspondence

Name: Richard Hall
Date: 5/21/17
County: Marin
Topic: Housing
Subject: Assumptions for Marin linking housing to traffic impact

Comment: 

What is the evidence that that the housing / traffic model used by Plan Bay Area is based on valid assumptions, and not assumptions that may apply to other counties in the region but not Marin - a suburban and rural county adjacent to other counties with high concentrations of high income jobs, e.g. a county with different characteristics.

1) What does the traffic model used by Plan Bay Area 2040 assume when a new 100 unit market rate apartment complex is built in Marin in terms of:
A) where the new residents moved from
B) where the new residents work (which may change over time, and each household may have multiple workers working in different locations)
C) are the same percentage assumptions or rules for A and B used for Marin as they are for other counties like San Francisco or Santa Clara county?
D) based on likely income profiles what modes of commute transportation will these new residents use and where will they commute to?
E) is there a correlation between income and likelihood to take transit vs drive?
F) For the 100 unit market rate apartment complex how many additional daily car trips will be added? How many of the new residents will commute by car to jobs in counties outside Marin?

One might reasonably assess that new market rate housing in Marin will maximize rents with luxury units and is mostly rented to affluent professionals with jobs in SF or Oakland who prefer to drive to work - adding to traffic and out commuting, not reducing it.

2) If a 100 unit apartment dedicate to affordable housing is built in Marin again what assumptions does Plan Bay Area's traffic model apply:
A) where the new residents moved from
B) where the new residents work (which may change over time, and each household may have multiple workers working in different locations)
C) are the same percentage assumptions or rules for A and B used for Marin as they are for other counties like San Francisco or Santa Clara county?
D) based on likely income profiles what modes of commute transportation will these new residents use and where will they commute to?
E) For this 100 unit affordable housing apartment complex how many additional daily car trips will be generated. How many car trips will be generated to destinations outside Marin County?

3) was the Plan Bay Area model updated based on the 2016 Fair Housing Act case in the western addition of San Francisco that found that neighborhood preferences could not be applied in lotteries whereby those who already lived nearby were given higher chances of winning the lottery?

4) if new affordable rate housing is built in Marin:
A) is there a lottery to determine who gets to live there?
B) can the lottery give preference to people who work in Marin (or any other geographically defined area) but currently live outside?
C) typically what is the percentage of applicants for Marin affordable housing units by county who
(i) currently work in Marin but live in another county
(ii) currently live and work in Marin
(iii) currently live in Marin but work elsewhere

These critical assumptions form the underlying basis of the entire plan in terms of reducing out commuting and traffic congestion. Please provide detailed answers (responses to my questions to the original Plan Bay Area were dismissive and incomplete - THIS TIME PLEASE PROVIDE SPECIFICS).

Thank you.