The Road to Plan Bay Area 2050

The Road to Plan Bay Area 2050

While the Plan Bay Area 2050 long-range planning process will not officially kick off until August 2019, MTC and ABAG are beginning some of the technical analyses required to develop the plan in spring and summer 2019.

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Understanding the region’s financial resources and needs to create a fiscally-constrained plan, as well as developing a framework for the regional growth pattern, are essential for  building the foundation for the upcoming Plan Bay Area 2050.

Key tasks for spring and summer 2019 include:

  • Revenue Forecasts. Under federal law, transportation investments in a regional plan must align with anticipated future revenues. Expanding upon this framework, MTC and ABAG also are working to identify current and future revenue sources for affordable housing and resilience investments – both for sea level rise and other natural disasters – to create a more comprehensive regional plan. Revenue forecasts will be used when developing the Preferred Plan in fall 2019 and winter 2020.
  • Needs Assessments. Needs assessments are conducted for specific funding categories to understand the financial resources required to achieve specific long-range planning goals. For Plan Bay Area 2050, needs assessments are slated to be conducted for transportation state of good repair (roads, bridges, highways and public transit); transportation operations; housing; and resilience. Transportation needs assessment work will be developed in concert with local partners through the Bay Area Partnership.
  • Request for Regionally-significant Projects. Previously referred to as the Call for Projects, MTC and ABAG request that county transportation agencies and major transit operators submit all remaining capacity-increasing projects not previously submitted to MTC and ABAG through Horizon and the Request for Transformative Projects. These projects will be considered when developing the transportation element of Plan Bay Area 2050 in the fall, and uncommitted projects will go through a project performance assessment if they exceed $250 million in total costs. County agencies and major operators must submit their project lists by the end of June 2019.
  • Regional Growth Framework Update. More than a decade after Priority Development Areas (PDAs) were first submitted by local jurisdictions, MTC and ABAG are taking a look at potential reforms to the regional growth framework. In particular, how should the region handle PDAs that are not meeting program guidelines, and should growth in Plan Bay Area 2050 extend beyond today’s PDAs to other transit-rich and high-resource communities? Reforms will be considered by MTC and ABAG committees this spring, with an opportunity to submit new geographies for growth during the summer.
  • Regional Growth Forecast Methodology. Before developing a localized growth pattern as part of the Preferred Plan, a long-range regional growth forecast must be developed to identify the number of people, jobs and housing units required through 2050. This summer, staff will hold a public hearing on methodology updates and ask that the ABAG Executive Board approve the regional forecast methodology for use in Plan Bay Area 2050.
  • Equity Analysis Methodology. Before conducting the Equity Analysis for Plan Bay Area 2050 starting in fall 2019, MTC/ABAG must update its Communities of Concern as well as the methodology that will be used to evaluate the Preferred Plan. This work will begin in spring 2019 in consultation with the Regional Equity Working Group (REWG) and other key committees.

By September 2019 – when the development of the Preferred Plan is expected to begin in earnest – all of the above items are slated to be complete.

Want to get involved in preparing for Plan Bay Area 2050? Updates on the items above will go to the Regional Advisory Working Group over the coming months – participate in person or join via webinar.

For more information about Plan Bay Area 2050, please contact the project manager, Dave Vautin, at dvautin@bayareametro.gov.